The Application of Neural Networks to the Recognition of Price, Time, Volume, Sentiment, and Fundamental Patterns in the US Treasury Bond Market.

The BondExpert weekly forecast represents a bold new integrated approach in financial forecasting methodology. It was designed and developed by applying chaos theory to the non-linear interaction of T-Bond prices with fundamental and technical factors. It is especially effective because it uses both fundamental and technical indicators. All of our models use an artificially-intelligent forecasting engine to predict price behavior and uncover trading opportunities.

The forecasting engine is the result of analyzing eight years of weekly fundamental and technical indicators. Feedback relationships between the change in T-Bond prices and these indicators were determined using a neural network. The most important of these weekly T-Bond indicators is the "IDC Monetary Variable," and its momentum and rate of change. This proprietary indicator, when combined with actual price, volume, and sentiment (Daily Sentiment Index provided by MBH Commodities), allows the network to recognize patterns that precede price movements a week in advance. The forecast consists of a description of how T-Bond prices will move during the week. Prices are forecast to be:

• Flat (trade in a narrow range)
• Rise Early and Close Lower a week later
• Rise Sharply
• Fall Early and Close Higher a week later
• Fall Sharply
• no forecast (continue prior forecast)

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